soonerdawg nba thread

[OnWisconsin]

going to try something similar to fading the touts, only in this instance i will be tracking the posters on the RX and two other gambling forums. We're going to start by following these posters for one week, and see if there's any advantage in tailing or fading. In parenthese is the percentage of posters who posted these plays. Remember, the first week we are following the public to see if we can gain an advantage at a certain percentage. I'm posting these here so I don't have to deal with a bunch of clutter. From here on out I'll simply be posting plays and will not do any more write ups unless something changes. BOL to all.

1*: Boston +5 1/2 (64%)

1*: Boston/Cleveland U184 1/2 (78%)

1*: Washington/Dallas O209 (72%)

1*: Houston/Portland U186 (72%)

1*: Lakers -11 1/2 (93%)

1*: Clippers/Lakers O202 (69%)

All lines posted are available at SIA at the time of positng. Good luck everyone.

 

[OnWisconsin]

ytd

boston, boston U, Portland U winners

YTD overall 3-3

Sides 1-1

Totals 2-2

 

[OnWisconsin]

10/28

1*: Atlanta -8 (81%)

1*: Utah/Denver U209 (80%) ESPN

1*: Phoenix -3 1/2 (78%)

1*: Memphis +2 (77%)

1*: Denver -5 1/2 (77%) ESPN

1*: Miami -4 1/2 (75%)

1*: Philly +10 (71%)

1*: Cleveland -6 1/2 (68%)

1*: NO +9 1/2 (60%) ESPN

Didn't make the cut due to low volume, but will track as 1* plays:

1*: Cleveland/Toronto U194 (71%)

1*: Charlotte/Boston U183 (67%)

 

[OnWisconsin]

ytd

atl, den, miami, cle/tor U, char/bos = winners

10/28 = 5-6

YTD = 8-9

Sides = 3-5 (4-6 ytd)

Totals = 2-1 (4-3 ytd; 4-1 U, 0-2 O)

Backing Dawgs YTD = 1-3

Backing Faves YTD = 3-3

National TV sides = 2-2

National TV totals = 1-2

90% + = 0-1 (side)

80-89%= 1-1 (1-0 side, 0-1 total)

70-79%= 5-4 (2-3 side, 3-1 total)

60-69%= 2-3 (1-1 side, 1-2 total)

 

[OnWisconsin]

10/29

FYI: the above record when posters play a total by a consensus of 60 -69% is 1-1, not 1-2. Perhaps a moderator can verify and fix that for me

Tonight's plays:

1*: SA/Chicago U193 (100%) TNT

1*: Denver/Portland O200 (79%) TNT

1*: SA -4 (73%) TNT

1*: Denver +7 1/2 (67%) TNT

All lines used in this thread are with SIA at the time of posting unless otherwise noted. GLTA.

 

[OnWisconsin]

ytd

SA/Chicago U, Den winners

10/29 = 2-2

YTD 10-11

Sides = 1-1 (5-7 ytd)

Totals = 1-1 (5-4 ytd; 5-1 U, 0-3 O)

Backing DAWGS YTD = 2-3

Backing Faves YTD = 3-4

National TV sides = 3-3

National TV totals = 2-3

90% + = 1-1 (0-1 side, 1-0 total)

80-89% = 1-1 (1-0 side, 0-1 total)

70-79% = 5-6 (2-4 side, 3-2 total)

60-69% = 3-3 (2-2 side, 1-1 total)

 

[OnWisconsin]

10/30

SIDES:

1*: Golden St. +5 1/2 (80%)

1*: Utah -9 (78)

1*: Philly -6 (76%)***

1*: OKC +5 (75%)

1* Toronto -3 1/2 (67%)

1*: Charlotte -1 1/2 (64%)

1* New Jersey +11 (64%)

1*: Lakers -7 1/2 (63%) ESPN

1*: Washington +6 (60%)

1*: Chicago +12 (60%) ESPN

TOTALS**************

1*: Toronto/Memphis U195 1/2 (100%)

1*: GS/Phoneix U232 (86%)**

1*: OKC/Detroit U191 (80%)

1*:Sacramento/NO U201 1/2 (78%)

1*: Washington/Atlanta O203 1/2 (71%)

1*:Miami/Indy U213 1/2 (67%)

1*: Milwaukee/Philly O191 (60%)

 

[OnWisconsin]

ytd

10/30: 9-8 (winners: Utah, Philly, OKC, Charlottle, NJ, G.S. U, OKC U, Sac. U, Miami U)

YTD: 19-19

Sides: 10-12

Totals: 9-7 (Unders 9-2; Overs 0-5)

Backing DAWGS: 4-6

Backing Faves: 6-6

National TV sides: 3-5

National TV totals: 2-3

90% +: 1-2 (0-1 side; 1-1 total)

80-89%: 3-2 (1-1 side; 2-1 total)

70-79%: 9-7 (5-4 side; 4-3 total)

60-69%: 6-8 (4-6 side; 2-2 total)

early trends to note: public 9-2 when playing the Under and 0-5 when playing the Over; public is 5-8 overall when playing the side and total at a clip of 60% or more on nationally televised games

 

[OnWisconsin]

10/31 (saturday)

1*: Sacramento +16 (100%)

1*: Clippers +5 1/2 (77%)

1*: Detroit +3 (69%)

1*: Cleveland -15 (67%)

1*: Philly -2 (67%)

1*: Washington -6 1/2 (60%)

Totals--------------------------------------

1*: Sacramento/SA U201 (100%)

1*: Cleveland/Charlotte U182 (67%)

FYI: The SA game was the most heavily bet with the side and total combined, and both were bet at 100%. Be interesting to see how that winds up. Very low number of NBA bettors today, but with CFB I guess that's to be expected.

 

[OnWisconsin]

ytd

10/31: 3-5 (winners: Philly, Washington, Cleveland Under)

YTD: 22-24

Sides: 12-16

Totals: 10-8 (Unders 10-3; Overs 0-5)

Backing Dawgs: 4-9

Backing Faves: 8-7

National TV Sides: 3-5

National TV Totals: 2-3

90%+: 1-4 (0-2 side; 1-2 total)

80-89%: 3-2 (1-1 side; 2-1 total)

70-79%: 9-8 (5-5 side; 4-3 total)

60-69%: 9-9 (6-7 side; 3-2 total)

Emerging trends: Public 10-3 when playing the Under; Public 0-5 when playing the Over; Public 4-9 when backing the DAWG; Public 1-4 when backing a side or total of 90% or more; Public 5-8 overall on National TV games

 

[OnWisconsin]

11/1

Will be back with the evening games closer to tip. Again, not much action on the early game, but it did manage to meet my minimum number of bettors.

1*: Toronto +6 1/2 (100%)

 

[OnWisconsin]

11/1 additions

1*: Boston -12 (92%)***

1*: Lakers -9 (80%)

1*: Miami -4 1/2 (72%)

1*: Portland -3 (63%)

1*: Denver -11 (60%)

Totals------------------

1*: Phoenix/Minn U220 (86%)***

1*: Atlanta/Lakers U196 1/2 (80%)

 

[OnWisconsin]

ytd

11/1: winners: miami, portland

YTD: 24-30

Sides:14-20

Totals: 10-10 (Unders 10-5; Overs 0-5)

Backing DAWGS: 4-10

Backing Faves: 10-10

National TV: 5-8 (3-5 sides, 2-3 totals)

90%+: 1-6 (0-4 sides, 1-2 totals)

80-89%: 3-5 (1-2 sides; 2-3 totals)

70-79%: 10-8 (6-5 sides; 4-3 totals)

60-69%: 10-10 (7-8 sides; 3-2 totals)

NOTE: The heaviest bet side and totals on Saturday and Sunday went a combined 0-4; Public 4-10 when backing the DAWG; Public is 10-5 when playing the Under; Public is 0-5 when playing the Over; Public is 1-6 when betting at 90% or more; Public is 4-11 when betting at 80% or more

 

[OnWisconsin]

11/2

1*: New Jersey +7 (86%)***

1*: Minnesota +7 1/2 (86%)***

1*: Sacramento -1 (64%)

Totals-----------------------------

1*: NJ/Charlotte O176 (100%)

1*: Memphis/Sac O205 1/2 (100%)

1*: NO/NY O203 (67%)***

1*: Houston/Utah U203 (67%)

1*: Minnesota/Clippers U196 1/2 (60%)

The NJ and Minnesota games were the heaviest bet, getting the same number of plays. The NO/NY total was the most popular total. A lot of folks seem to be fading the Clips because they're a favorite. Let's see how THAT works out for them. Beginning tomorrow I will start posting my actual plays in the NBA forum. Let us see how THAT goes as well. Good luck to all.

 

[OnWisconsin]

ytd

11/2 winners: Minnesota, Sacramento, Memphis O, NY O, Minn U

YTD: 29-33 (47%)

Sides: 16-21 (43%)

Totals: 13-12 [50%] (Unders 11-6 (65%); Overs 2-6 (25%)

Backing DAWGS: 5-11 (31%)

Backing Faves: 11-10 (52%)

National TV: 5-8 [38%] (3-5 (38%) sides; 2-3 (40%) totals)

90%+: 2-7 [22%] (0-4 sides; 2-3 (40%) totals)

80-89%: 4-6 [40%] (2-3 (40%) sides; 2-3 (40%) totals)

70-79%: 10-8 [56%] (6-5 sides 55%); 4-3 (57%) totals)

60-69%: 13-11 [54%] (8-8 sides (50%); 5-3 (63%) totals)